🌡️ Warming Scenarios Compared
Click any scenario for detailed breakdown- 70-90% coral reefs die
- Sea level: +0.26-0.77m by 2100
- Arctic ice-free summers: rare
- 14% species lose >50% range
- 420 million more heat exposed
- 99% coral reefs die
- Sea level: +0.30-0.93m by 2100
- Arctic ice-free: every 10 years
- 18% species lose >50% range
- 2x more people water stressed
- Several meters sea rise long-term
- Amazon may flip to savanna
- Sea level: 0.5-1.5m by 2100
- 50%+ Greenland ice commits to melt
- 500 million in permanent drought
- Billions affected by heat extremes
- Mass migration begins
- Multiple tipping points triggered
- Sea level: 1-3m by 2100, 10m+ eventual
- Tropics largely uninhabitable
- 50%+ species extinction risk
- Food systems collapse in regions
- Civilizational threat
⚠️ Climate Tipping Points
Click any tipping point for detailsSelf-reinforcing changes that become irreversible once triggered. Some may already be crossed or dangerously close. Once triggered, they continue even if we stop emissions.
🧊 Greenland Ice Sheet
Losing 280 billion tonnes/year. Melt accelerating due to albedo feedback (darker surface absorbs more heat). Once started, unstoppable for millennia.
Key Facts
- Ice loss rate quadrupled since 1990s
- Melt zone expanding inland
- Dark algae growth accelerating melt
- Full melt takes 1,000+ years but becomes inevitable
- Current path: +3-5m sea level by 2300
Recent Developments (2026)
- 2023 extreme melt event exceeded all records
- Marine-terminating glaciers retreating rapidly
- Subsurface ocean warming observed
🧊 West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Marine ice sheet on unstable bed below sea level. Warm water melting from below. Thwaites "Doomsday" Glacier may have passed point of no return.
Thwaites Glacier ("Doomsday Glacier")
- Size of Florida, holds 65cm sea level rise
- Losing 50 billion tonnes/year
- Grounding line retreating 1.2km/year
- Acts as "cork" - collapse could trigger entire WAIS
- May be in irreversible retreat already
Timeline
- Complete Thwaites collapse: 200-600 years
- Full WAIS collapse: 500-1,000 years
- But acceleration could surprise us
🌳 Amazon Dieback
Amazon creates 50% of its own rainfall through evapotranspiration. Past threshold, it dries out and flips to savanna. Would release ~140 Gt carbon.
Why It Matters
- 10% of all species on Earth live here
- Stores 150-200 billion tonnes carbon
- Regulates South American rainfall
- Indigenous peoples depend on it
Warning Signs
- Eastern Amazon already emitting more CO₂ than absorbing
- Dry season lengthening by 3 weeks
- More severe droughts: 2005, 2010, 2015, 2023, 2025
- Deforestation rate accelerating under political pressure
- Climate change + deforestation = double threat
🧊 Permafrost Collapse
Frozen ground storing 2x atmospheric carbon. Thawing releases CO₂ and methane (28x more potent). Already thawing faster than predicted.
Scale of the Threat
- Covers 15% of Northern Hemisphere land
- Contains ancient organic matter frozen 10,000+ years
- Could release 30-160 Gt carbon by 2100
- Would add 0.3-0.5°C additional warming
Current Status (2026)
- Arctic warming 4x faster than global average
- Thaw depth increasing 15cm/decade
- Thermokarst lakes forming (methane hotspots)
- "Abrupt thaw" affecting 5-15% of permafrost zone
- Buildings and infrastructure collapsing in Arctic
🌊 AMOC Slowdown
Atlantic circulation keeping Europe warm. Greenland melt adding freshwater, reducing salinity, slowing circulation. Collapse would paradoxically cool Europe.
What is AMOC?
- Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
- Part of "Great Ocean Conveyor Belt"
- Brings warm water north, cold water south
- Makes Western Europe 5-10°C warmer than it would be
Collapse Impacts
- Europe cools 5-10°C (while world warms)
- Amazon rainfall shifts, accelerates dieback
- Sahel drought worsens
- US East Coast sea level rises 30-50cm extra
- Global weather patterns disrupted
🌲 Boreal Forest Shift
Taiga transitioning to temperate forest/grassland. Increased fires releasing massive carbon. Darker vegetation replacing snow reduces albedo, accelerating warming.
Why Boreal Forests Matter
- World's largest land biome (17M km²)
- 29% of world's forests
- Stores more carbon than Amazon (mostly in soil)
- Critical for global climate regulation
Changes Underway
- Fire season lengthening by 3 weeks
- 2023 Canadian fires: 18.4M hectares
- Trees shifting north 100km/century
- Permafrost thaw causing "drunken forests"
- Insects (bark beetles) expanding range
⚠️ Tipping Point Cascades
The real danger: Tipping points can trigger each other, creating a domino effect:
- Greenland melt → freshwater slows AMOC → Amazon drought → dieback releases carbon → accelerates permafrost thaw → methane release → triggers more ice loss
- We may be approaching a "point of no return" where multiple tipping points cascade
- Current trajectory: Risk of triggering 5+ tipping points by 2100
🗺️ Regional Impact Highlights
🌍 By Region
Major Impacts
- Western wildfires: +500% since 1970s, season 3+ weeks longer
- Hurricane intensity increasing: +13% stronger
- Southwest megadrought (worst in 1,200 years)
- Heat waves becoming deadly (2021 Pacific Northwest: 600+ deaths)
- Great Lakes water levels volatile (+/- 2m swings)
- Coastal flooding: Miami, NYC, New Orleans at high risk
By 2050
- US Southwest: -15% water availability
- Alaska: Permafrost thaw damages $5B+ infrastructure
- Gulf Coast: 100-year floods every 5-10 years
- California: 50% more wildfire area burned
Major Impacts
- Mediterranean: Severe drought risk, -30% water by 2050
- Alps glaciers: 50% gone by 2050, 90% by 2100
- Extreme heat: 2003 (70K deaths), 2019, 2022 events
- Flooding: Germany 2021 (180+ deaths, €30B damage)
- UK: Climate shifting to southern France equivalent
- Permafrost thaw in Scandinavia
Agricultural Shifts
- Wine regions moving north (England producing quality wine now)
- Mediterranean olive/citrus at risk
- Northern Europe: Growing season +2 weeks
- Southern Europe: Desertification advancing
Major Impacts
- Monsoon becoming more erratic (+20% variability)
- Himalayan glaciers: Water source for 2 billion people at risk
- Bangladesh: 17% underwater at +1m sea level, 30M displaced
- Heat + humidity: Wet bulb temps approaching 35°C limit
- Typhoons intensifying: +15% stronger by 2050
- China: Yangtze floods, Yellow River droughts
Glacial Melt Crisis
- Himalayan glaciers lost 40% volume since 1975
- Rivers fed: Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, Mekong, Yangtze
- Timeline: Peak water 2030-2050, then decline
- Affects: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, Nepal, Vietnam
Major Impacts
- Sahel: Drought + conflict nexus (climate migration → instability)
- Lake Chad: 90% shrunk since 1960s (30M people affected)
- Crop yields: -20% projected by 2050 (wheat, maize)
- Malaria expanding to highlands as they warm
- Coastal cities: Lagos, Alexandria, Dar es Salaam at risk
- Horn of Africa: Consecutive droughts, famine risk
Adaptation Challenges
- 60% of population reliant on rain-fed agriculture
- Adaptive capacity limited by poverty
- 70% of countries highly vulnerable
- But: Adaptation costs 5-10x less than damages
Australia
- 2019-20 Black Summer: 46M acres burned, 3B animals killed
- Great Barrier Reef: 50% coral lost, mass bleaching events
- Drought cycles intensifying (Millennium Drought repeat risk)
- Heatwaves: 50°C+ temperatures more frequent
- Southern regions: -15% rainfall by 2050
Pacific Islands
- Existential threat from sea level rise
- Tuvalu, Kiribati, Marshall Islands: Abandonment planned
- Saltwater intrusion destroying freshwater, crops
- Coral bleaching destroying fisheries (70% of protein)
- First climate refugees already relocating
- Some islands may be uninhabitable by 2050
Arctic
- Warming 4x faster than global average
- Sea ice: -13% per decade, summer ice-free by 2040s
- Permafrost thaw accelerating (see tipping points)
- Indigenous communities: Traditional ways of life threatened
- Geopolitics: Arctic resources becoming accessible
Antarctic
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet unstable (see tipping points)
- Sea ice at record lows (2023-2024)
- Emperor penguin colonies collapsing
- Ice shelf collapse: Larsen B (2002), Conger (2022)
- Warming faster than expected in some regions
🏙️ City Climate Futures
By 2100 (high emissions scenario), cities will have climates of places currently 1000+ km closer to equator. This is like moving south/north 1000km without actually moving.
⚠️ Important: This is based on temperature alone. Cities won't get the exact same weather - precipitation patterns, humidity, and extreme events will differ. But it gives a sense of the magnitude of change.
🌊 Sea Level Rise: Cities at Risk
Most Vulnerable Regions & Cities
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Netherlands
Miami
The Future Is Not Fixed
These projections assume we continue on current trajectory. Every tenth of a degree matters. Every tipping point avoided matters. The difference between 1.5°C and 3°C is the difference between challenging and catastrophic. We still have agency.